John
02-12-2011, 01:45 PM
It began when a young street vendor set himself alight in an obscure Tunisian village in an act of despair which ironically is spreading hope in a wildfire crescent from Algeria to Syria.
Mohammed Buoazizi's suicide sparked copy cat self immolations in Egypt which combined with decades of dictatorship, a collapsing economy and terrible corruption created an incendiary mix which drove ordinary Egyptians onto the street and Hosni Mubarak from power.
There is more dry tinder in the region where authoritarian leaders backed by foreign governments, or propped up by oil billions, can no longer necessarily rely on either to survive.
Perhaps most vulnerable is Jordan. The pro-western Kingdom has a population dominated by refugees from Palestine and their descendants, who make up 60%.
The local Arabs, and the Bedouin tribes especially, have been the bedrock of the monarchy. Last week, the rock wobbled.
Leaders from 36 tribes, who supply all but a tiny minority of the Jordanian armed forces which have kept the ruling Hashemites in power since the Second World War, issued a statement which would have been unthinkable three weeks ago.
They accused Queen Rania, an ethnic Palestinian, of building up her own power bases that "go against what Jordanians and Hashemites have agreed on in governing" this, they warned was "a danger to the nation and the structure the state... and the institution of the throne".
Queen Rania has been criticised before for her alleged extravagance when she organised a luxurious party in Wadi Rhum to celebrate her 40th birthday and may have also angered conservative tribal leaders for her support for women's rights.
There have been no calls for King Abdullah to step down - but they did warn that what happened in Egypt and Tunisia could strike in Jordan if reforms to the constitution, including the king''s right to select the Jordanian cabinet, were not made fast.
To guess what might happen next in the region would be foolish but not it would appear, as fooling at not.
Soon after Tunisia's regime fell, King Abdullah tried to head off his critics by sacking his government and ordering reform, and the Yemeni president promised he would stay for only another two years.
But this may not be enough, even oil rich Algeria has failed to keep a lid on things. This week a group of men stabbed themselves in a symbolic act of protest and opposition groups have promised a weekend of 'rage'.
Even Syria, which has been ruled with an iron grip for more than 40 years by the Baath party and dominated by the Assad family, is facing widespread demonstrations.
Both Syria and Algeria have fought hard to stifle Islamic movements which threatened the regime in the past. And it should not be be assumed that a majority of demonstrators anywhere in the region want to see is the replacement of autocracy with Sharia law.
Given the huge numbers needed to mobilise in Egypt to depose Mr Mubarak, and the wide range of opinion on the street, western fears that the Muslim Brotherhood could take over are exaggerated, most informed commentators would agree.
One country has grounds to fear change, though. Israel, the Jewish State, has peace treaties only with Jordan and Egypt, against whom she has fought many wars.
There has been little overt criticism of the treaties in either country from the street or from opposition politicians.
They may be binding their time, or more likely, they are more interested in harnessing the energies of a huge youth movement, 60% of Egyptians are under 25, in a form of democracy that could be sustainable.
But such optimism has little traction in Israel which fears that chaos in either Jordan or Egypt could plunge the region back onto a war footing.
Source - Yahoo.
Mohammed Buoazizi's suicide sparked copy cat self immolations in Egypt which combined with decades of dictatorship, a collapsing economy and terrible corruption created an incendiary mix which drove ordinary Egyptians onto the street and Hosni Mubarak from power.
There is more dry tinder in the region where authoritarian leaders backed by foreign governments, or propped up by oil billions, can no longer necessarily rely on either to survive.
Perhaps most vulnerable is Jordan. The pro-western Kingdom has a population dominated by refugees from Palestine and their descendants, who make up 60%.
The local Arabs, and the Bedouin tribes especially, have been the bedrock of the monarchy. Last week, the rock wobbled.
Leaders from 36 tribes, who supply all but a tiny minority of the Jordanian armed forces which have kept the ruling Hashemites in power since the Second World War, issued a statement which would have been unthinkable three weeks ago.
They accused Queen Rania, an ethnic Palestinian, of building up her own power bases that "go against what Jordanians and Hashemites have agreed on in governing" this, they warned was "a danger to the nation and the structure the state... and the institution of the throne".
Queen Rania has been criticised before for her alleged extravagance when she organised a luxurious party in Wadi Rhum to celebrate her 40th birthday and may have also angered conservative tribal leaders for her support for women's rights.
There have been no calls for King Abdullah to step down - but they did warn that what happened in Egypt and Tunisia could strike in Jordan if reforms to the constitution, including the king''s right to select the Jordanian cabinet, were not made fast.
To guess what might happen next in the region would be foolish but not it would appear, as fooling at not.
Soon after Tunisia's regime fell, King Abdullah tried to head off his critics by sacking his government and ordering reform, and the Yemeni president promised he would stay for only another two years.
But this may not be enough, even oil rich Algeria has failed to keep a lid on things. This week a group of men stabbed themselves in a symbolic act of protest and opposition groups have promised a weekend of 'rage'.
Even Syria, which has been ruled with an iron grip for more than 40 years by the Baath party and dominated by the Assad family, is facing widespread demonstrations.
Both Syria and Algeria have fought hard to stifle Islamic movements which threatened the regime in the past. And it should not be be assumed that a majority of demonstrators anywhere in the region want to see is the replacement of autocracy with Sharia law.
Given the huge numbers needed to mobilise in Egypt to depose Mr Mubarak, and the wide range of opinion on the street, western fears that the Muslim Brotherhood could take over are exaggerated, most informed commentators would agree.
One country has grounds to fear change, though. Israel, the Jewish State, has peace treaties only with Jordan and Egypt, against whom she has fought many wars.
There has been little overt criticism of the treaties in either country from the street or from opposition politicians.
They may be binding their time, or more likely, they are more interested in harnessing the energies of a huge youth movement, 60% of Egyptians are under 25, in a form of democracy that could be sustainable.
But such optimism has little traction in Israel which fears that chaos in either Jordan or Egypt could plunge the region back onto a war footing.
Source - Yahoo.