OMEN
09-08-2006, 07:43 AM
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Five years after President Pervez Musharraf bowed to U.S. pressure to withdraw support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, his government has signed a peace deal with Pakistani Taliban.
Critics fear the treaty signed in the tribal area of North Waziristan on Tuesday could create a refuge for the Taliban and their al Qaeda allies, so long as they don't cause trouble too close to home.
"I think it is a blow. Whether we like it or not, it has set up a safe haven for al Qaeda and the Taliban," said Ahmed Rashid, a respected Pakistani journalist and author of "Taliban".
Afghan, U.S. and other NATO countries with troops fighting a Taliban insurgency just across the border will be looking askance at Pakistan's effective retreat.
"They've ceded North Waziristan to the Talibs," said Samina Ahmed, of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Officials vigorously reject such conclusions, just as they have rejected repeated accusations that Pakistan has not done enough to stop Taliban fighters crossing the border.
President George W. Bush said he doesn't see the deal giving safe haven to militants who might be hiding in tribal lands.
"I don't read it that way," Bush said in an interview on Thursday.
Accusations refuse to go away that Pakistani agents are supporting the insurgency with training, arms and cash as part of a strategy to gain influence in Afghanistan.
Though analysts say the U.S. administration doesn't want to risk destabilising a valued ally, the U.S. media appears to be sharpening its knives for a visit by Musharraf later this month. The New York Times on Thursday quoted Seth G. Jones, a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, saying Pakistani agents have helped hide Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, and tipped off fighters on U.S.-led forces' movements.
Still, Washington routinely commends Musharraf's efforts to rein in al Qaeda, though Osama bin Laden remains at large, supposedly somewhere on the Afghan-Pakistan border.
Combat Fatigue
After al Qaeda-inspired attempts on his life, Musharraf in early 2004 ordered an offensive in South Waziristan which later moved north, taking the fight into two of the most recalcitrant of Pakistan's seven semi-autonomous tribal agencies.
Al Qaeda nests were found, but the army also came into conflict with pro-Taliban tribesmen, whereas clashes with Taliban elsewhere in Pakistan have been rare.
The intrusion served to stiffen resistance among the fiercely independent tribes.
The army became bogged down fighting what many Pakistanis regarded as an American war, while it was also being criticised for brutally quelling a nationalist revolt in the southwest province of Baluchistan.
During the Waziristan campaigns, the army lost 220 men, while more than 700 have been wounded. Tribal paramilitary forces have suffered desertions on a large scale.
"I think this agreement has been triggered most keenly by Musharraf in order to placate his constituency, which is the army," Rashid said.
Critics doubted whether peace in Waziristan would last.
Some militants, not necessarily the ones who signed the accord, would probably break the treaty by carrying out attacks.
And the hornet's nest could easily be stirred up again if the United States carries out missile attacks on suspected al Qaeda targets hiding there, as it has done in the past.
"Caved In"
Waziristan, both north and south, have been left in a mess.
In the South, the army signed a treaty two years ago and retreated to barracks.
Since then, Pakistani Taliban have virtually ruled the roost. Their leaders openly boast of sending fighters to Afghanistan.
They have set up a parallel administration, and have begun "Talibanising" so-called settled areas near the tribal lands.
Critics say the militants in North Waziristan have got what they wanted -- prisoners released, troops back in barracks, checkpoints removed, weapons given back and money paid out.
Moreover, the pro-Taliban Islamist party that brokered the accord got what it wanted -- power and influence.
The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam faction, led by firebrand opposition leader Fazal-ur-Rehman and known as the JUIF, is already a member of the governments in Baluchistan and North West Frontier, the two provinces bordering Afghanistan.
"It's like putting the fox in charge of the hen house," was how one diplomat characterised the JUIF's ascendancy.
In return, the government received pledges from tribal leaders not to attack its troops, or forces across the border. But the frontier's history is littered with broken peace deals.
"None of them have been honoured. Why should we assume this time round it is going to be honoured?" said ICG's Ahmed.
Reuters
Five years after President Pervez Musharraf bowed to U.S. pressure to withdraw support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, his government has signed a peace deal with Pakistani Taliban.
Critics fear the treaty signed in the tribal area of North Waziristan on Tuesday could create a refuge for the Taliban and their al Qaeda allies, so long as they don't cause trouble too close to home.
"I think it is a blow. Whether we like it or not, it has set up a safe haven for al Qaeda and the Taliban," said Ahmed Rashid, a respected Pakistani journalist and author of "Taliban".
Afghan, U.S. and other NATO countries with troops fighting a Taliban insurgency just across the border will be looking askance at Pakistan's effective retreat.
"They've ceded North Waziristan to the Talibs," said Samina Ahmed, of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Officials vigorously reject such conclusions, just as they have rejected repeated accusations that Pakistan has not done enough to stop Taliban fighters crossing the border.
President George W. Bush said he doesn't see the deal giving safe haven to militants who might be hiding in tribal lands.
"I don't read it that way," Bush said in an interview on Thursday.
Accusations refuse to go away that Pakistani agents are supporting the insurgency with training, arms and cash as part of a strategy to gain influence in Afghanistan.
Though analysts say the U.S. administration doesn't want to risk destabilising a valued ally, the U.S. media appears to be sharpening its knives for a visit by Musharraf later this month. The New York Times on Thursday quoted Seth G. Jones, a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, saying Pakistani agents have helped hide Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, and tipped off fighters on U.S.-led forces' movements.
Still, Washington routinely commends Musharraf's efforts to rein in al Qaeda, though Osama bin Laden remains at large, supposedly somewhere on the Afghan-Pakistan border.
Combat Fatigue
After al Qaeda-inspired attempts on his life, Musharraf in early 2004 ordered an offensive in South Waziristan which later moved north, taking the fight into two of the most recalcitrant of Pakistan's seven semi-autonomous tribal agencies.
Al Qaeda nests were found, but the army also came into conflict with pro-Taliban tribesmen, whereas clashes with Taliban elsewhere in Pakistan have been rare.
The intrusion served to stiffen resistance among the fiercely independent tribes.
The army became bogged down fighting what many Pakistanis regarded as an American war, while it was also being criticised for brutally quelling a nationalist revolt in the southwest province of Baluchistan.
During the Waziristan campaigns, the army lost 220 men, while more than 700 have been wounded. Tribal paramilitary forces have suffered desertions on a large scale.
"I think this agreement has been triggered most keenly by Musharraf in order to placate his constituency, which is the army," Rashid said.
Critics doubted whether peace in Waziristan would last.
Some militants, not necessarily the ones who signed the accord, would probably break the treaty by carrying out attacks.
And the hornet's nest could easily be stirred up again if the United States carries out missile attacks on suspected al Qaeda targets hiding there, as it has done in the past.
"Caved In"
Waziristan, both north and south, have been left in a mess.
In the South, the army signed a treaty two years ago and retreated to barracks.
Since then, Pakistani Taliban have virtually ruled the roost. Their leaders openly boast of sending fighters to Afghanistan.
They have set up a parallel administration, and have begun "Talibanising" so-called settled areas near the tribal lands.
Critics say the militants in North Waziristan have got what they wanted -- prisoners released, troops back in barracks, checkpoints removed, weapons given back and money paid out.
Moreover, the pro-Taliban Islamist party that brokered the accord got what it wanted -- power and influence.
The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam faction, led by firebrand opposition leader Fazal-ur-Rehman and known as the JUIF, is already a member of the governments in Baluchistan and North West Frontier, the two provinces bordering Afghanistan.
"It's like putting the fox in charge of the hen house," was how one diplomat characterised the JUIF's ascendancy.
In return, the government received pledges from tribal leaders not to attack its troops, or forces across the border. But the frontier's history is littered with broken peace deals.
"None of them have been honoured. Why should we assume this time round it is going to be honoured?" said ICG's Ahmed.
Reuters